Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 15.593218 17.777534 20.118241 22.808480 25.810248 29.051717 32.811964
2025-08-24 12.264466 15.227510 18.639308 22.839448 27.850678 33.616796 40.731147
2025-08-31 10.407983 13.660268 17.582792 22.627087 28.903083 36.412764 46.032528
2025-09-07 9.126936 12.591025 16.945245 22.764316 30.273679 39.567776 51.861210
2025-09-14 8.351863 12.024032 16.804968 23.404860 32.185595 43.361121 58.537306
2025-09-21 7.400318 11.101798 16.086186 23.182389 32.898870 45.592846 63.257772
2025-09-28 6.348538 9.919294 14.889658 22.181728 32.447826 46.200440 65.789894
2025-10-05 5.959278 9.636813 14.900478 22.818961 34.226681 49.827347 72.477148
2025-10-12 5.566599 9.304591 14.799502 23.265423 35.730192 53.110259 78.797499
2025-10-19 5.062954 8.751362 14.321374 23.110668 36.335187 55.132241 83.406403
2025-10-26 4.601545 8.218630 13.825807 22.880444 36.790693 56.928338 87.729127
2025-11-02 4.253134 7.834730 13.525079 22.914233 37.619639 59.271871 92.901530
2025-11-09 3.962304 7.527817 13.332840 23.117527 38.736181 62.117154 98.979080
2025-11-16 3.648913 7.153637 13.002799 23.075760 39.463235 64.403433 104.311664
2025-11-23 3.341969 6.759722 12.605306 22.886927 39.927998 66.283160 109.067145
2025-11-30 3.121090 6.499927 12.412296 23.016542 40.895912 68.957813 115.115075
2025-12-07 3.004872 6.423213 12.527361 23.666556 42.733391 73.048264 123.487633
2025-12-14 2.762385 6.082856 12.150323 23.440768 43.096752 74.803342 128.238534
2025-12-21 2.430793 5.535485 11.357591 22.430657 42.075275 74.275215 129.314894
2025-12-28 2.353550 5.491920 11.488513 23.074028 43.907246 78.447742 138.084660
2026-01-04 2.256018 5.397304 11.515188 23.524922 45.417689 82.134762 146.172881
2026-01-11 2.091822 5.146575 11.224293 23.368631 45.843998 84.019833 151.346075
2026-01-18 1.932614 4.891079 10.904804 23.136153 46.115656 85.642215 156.120239